NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL)
Valuation Overview•Is NLI Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($113M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $43.6M | +8.5% | -1.7% | +6.7% | +3.8% | |
| EBITDA | $7.0M | — | -9.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $9.0M | -156.3% | — | — | -4.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.18 | -155.8% | — | — | -4.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.9M | -266.3% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 32.1% | 29.8% | 29.8% | 30.5% |
| Operating Margin | 8.9% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 0.6% |
| Net Margin | -15.8% | 6.9% | 15.5% | 19.4% |
| FCF Margin | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 12.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.21 | $0.18 | -15.9% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.23 | $0.09 | -60.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $-0.63 | -440.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.18 | $-0.16 | -189.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.19 | $0.01 | -94.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.21 | $0.01 | -95.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.21 | $0.34 | +61.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.21 | $0.74 | +249.1% |
Total return is +20.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +5.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +32.6% | +20.2% | — |
| 1Y | +20.8% | +5.0% | +6.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +22.0% | +0.8% | +35.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +10.0% | -1.3% | +43.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.5% | -4.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, NLI Holdings, Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
NLI Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.12 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $6.00 (implying -13.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NLI Holdings, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.5 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.8%.
NLI Holdings, Inc. pays a 8.2% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
NLI Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.5% 1Y revenue growth and -155.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Sell based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -13.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NLI Holdings, Inc. include: -33.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.50x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.