Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)
Valuation Overview•Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 50/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NLY demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (17.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 102.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | +5.4% | +17.3% | +35.2% | +17.1% | |
| EBITDA | $2.3B | — | +29.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.0B | +102.3% | +5.5% | — | +15.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.40 | +80.2% | -9.4% | — | +5.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $471.5M | -109.1% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 99.2% | 99.4% | 98.1% | 97.7% |
| Operating Margin | 102.6% | 77.0% | 139.2% | 87.7% |
| Net Margin | 30.3% | 5.6% | 75.3% | 33.8% |
| FCF Margin | -3.3% | 23.4% | 102.6% | 123.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.74 | $0.33 | -55.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.72 | $0.74 | +2.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.72 | $0.73 | +1.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.71 | $0.72 | +1.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.67 | $0.72 | +7.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.67 | $0.66 | -1.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.66 | $0.68 | +3.0% |
Total return is +30.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +5.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.0% | -9.3% | — |
| 1Y | +30.4% | +5.4% | +14.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +13.8% | -5.8% | +39.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +0.4% | -12.0% | +41.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +3.3% | -10.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) valuation, health, and returns.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +103.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $45.20)
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $45.20 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $20.93 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $24.33 (implying +9.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 50/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.4%.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. pays a 13.2% dividend yield, covered by a 93% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.1% buyback yield.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.4% 1Y revenue growth and +80.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +17.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 28 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +9.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. include: -14.9% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.61x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.