Upside case
Bull case
$72+223.7%
NLY would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 28 covering NLY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$25
+9.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$1 – $72
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.1B
NLY price targets
Three scenarios for where NLY stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$1
Base
$21
Bull
$72
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$21-7.1%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NLY — at roughly 7x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$1-96.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push NLY down roughly 97% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
NLY · NYSEReal EstateREIT - MortgageDecember year-end
Annaly Capital Management is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in agency mortgage-backed securities — government-guaranteed home loans packaged into bonds. It makes money through the spread between the interest earned on its mortgage assets and its borrowing costs, supplemented by mortgage servicing rights and other real estate credit investments. Its key advantage lies in specialized mortgage credit expertise and scale in agency MBS markets, allowing it to efficiently manage interest rate risk and leverage.
Market Cap
$16.1B
Revenue TTM
$6.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
30.3%
NLY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.72
Revenue
$1.8B/$494M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.72
Revenue
$2.2B/$555M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.72
Revenue
$1.1B/$697M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.74
Revenue
$1.6B/$595M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.72 | +1.4% | $1.8B/$494M | +262.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73/$0.72 | +1.4% | $2.2B/$555M | +288.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74/$0.72 | +2.8% | $1.1B/$697M | +52.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.33/$0.74 | -55.4% | $1.6B/$595M | +173.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.4B
-4.3% YoY
FY2
$7.7B
+19.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.78
-4.8% YoY
FY2
$2.71
-2.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$222M
FCF Margin: -3.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NLY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NLY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2021
Total disclosed revenue $64M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Bank Servicing
88.2%
-14.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Bank Servicing is the largest disclosed segment at 88.2% of FY 2021 revenue, down 14.7% YoY.
NLY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1979 — implies +8570.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8570.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NLY
7.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
69% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
NLY
7.7x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
68% discount
vs NLY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.7x
vs
5Y Average
7.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
7.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-61%
Real Estate
26.4x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-69%
Real Estate
24.1x
-68%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+5%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+20%
Real Estate
16.7x
+10%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+103%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Real Estate
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
3.8x
—
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-23%
Real Estate
3.0x
-19%
5Y Avg
4.5x
-46%
Dividend Yield
13.12%
S&P 500
1.87%
+602%
Real Estate
4.66%
+182%
5Y Avg
14.85%
-12%
| Metric | NLY | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg NLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.5x | 19.1x-61% | 26.4x-72% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.7x | 25.1x-69% | 24.1x-68% | 7.3x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3x | 15.2x+20% | 16.7x | 9.0x+103% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.4x | 3.8x |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-23% | 3.0x-19% | 4.5x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | 13.12% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 14.85% |
NLY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNLY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NLY pays 13.2% total shareholder yield with 102.6% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
99.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
102.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.92
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
102.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$109.8B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
—
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
13.2%
Dividend
13.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$14M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
92.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
718M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageNLY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financing Costs & Interest Rates
Annaly's business model relies heavily on borrowing at lower short-term interest rates to invest in higher-yielding mortgage-backed securities. Fluctuations in interest rates can significantly impact its net interest margin and profitability, particularly if financing costs rise above mortgage rates, leading to reinvestment risk.
High Risk
Leverage Risks
Annaly employs substantial financial leverage to enhance portfolio returns, which can amplify profits but also increases the risk to cash flows and dividends. This risk is particularly pronounced during fluctuations in short-term interest rates.
High Risk
Dividend Volatility
Annaly has a history of dividend cuts, notably in 2020 and 2023, due to earnings pressure. This volatility raises concerns about the sustainability of its dividend, which may not provide a reliable source of income for investors.
Medium
Real Estate Market Risks
Deterioration in the financial health of U.S. homeowners could lead to increased defaults on mortgages, significantly reducing Annaly's portfolio income. Although agency MBS are insured, this protection may not be sufficient in all scenarios, particularly during regional economic declines.
Medium
Credit Risk Exposure
Annaly is exposed to credit risk, particularly from defaults on bonds and underlying mortgages in its non-Agency MBS or residential whole loan investments. Such defaults can lead to increased financing costs and potential losses.
Medium
Market Price Volatility
The market price of Annaly's common stock can be volatile due to various factors, including changes in operating results and interest rates. Large stock issuances can also lead to price declines due to dilution.
Lower
Regulatory & Policy Changes
Changes in government regulations or policies affecting government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could adversely impact Annaly's financial condition and its ability to pay dividends.
Lower
Operational & Cybersecurity Risks
Annaly faces operational risks, including potential cybersecurity incidents that could materially affect its business operations. Such risks are inherent in the financial services industry.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NLY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Portfolio and Strategic Flexibility
NLY has a well-diversified business model with a portfolio strategy that allows it to pivot between attractive investment opportunities, including agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), and residential credit investments. This diversification provides resilience and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Attractive Dividend Yield
NLY offers a high dividend yield, often cited around 12.3%, making it a compelling option for income-seeking investors. The company has a history of consistent dividend payments.
Potential for Capital Appreciation
Analysts suggest that NLY's earnings and dividends are poised to rise as interest rate spreads widen, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved macro predictability. Some analysts project a significant increase in the dividend and a corresponding rise in the stock price.
Resilience in Economic Downturns
Historically, NLY has demonstrated an ability to outperform during economic downturns due to its focus on high-quality Agency MBS, which are guaranteed by government agencies and have minimal credit risk. This makes it a counter-cyclical anchor in a portfolio.
Favorable Interest Rate Environment
As the Federal Reserve ends its hiking cycle and interest rates begin to fall, NLY is positioned to profit from a 'steepening' yield curve. This environment can lead to wider mortgage spreads and improved profitability.
Strong Balance Sheet and Management
The company is noted for its strong balance sheet and a business model that has weathered economic stress and geopolitical turmoil. It has also been internally managed since June 2020.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NLY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$22.38
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.43
+21.4% from the low
52-Week High
$24.52
-8.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.48%
3 Month
-2.61%
YTD
-2.3%
1 Year
+16.2%
3Y CAGR
+5.5%
5Y CAGR
-9.3%
10Y CAGR
-6.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NLY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.5x
vs 6.9x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-4.3%
vs +27.3% median
-116% below peer median
Net Margin
30.3%
vs 24.2% median
+25% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NLY NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | $16.1B | 7.5x | -4.3% | 30.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
AGN AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | $9.6B | 6.9x | +42.6% | 24.2% | Hold | +3.8% |
TWO TWO Two Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | 11.9x | +27.7% | -44.8% | Hold | +14.2% |
MFA MFA MFA Financial, Inc. | $975M | 7.0x | +1.7% | 39.1% | Hold | +7.3% |
RIT RITM Rithm Capital Corp. | $5.4B | 4.3x | +27.3% | 12.3% | Buy | +40.5% |
IVR IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $577M | 3.7x | -28.8% | 30.2% | Hold | +12.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NLY Dividend and Capital Return
NLY returns 13.2% total yield, led by a 13.12% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
13.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
13.12%
Payout Ratio
92.8%
How NLY Splits Its Return
Div 13.12%
Dividend 13.12%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-7.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$14M
Estimated Shares Retired
633.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
718M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.80 | +7.7% | 0.1% | 13.2% |
| 2024 | $2.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 15.7% |
| 2023 | $2.60 | -26.1% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| 2022 | $3.52 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsNLY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $25, implying +9.5% from the current price of $22. The bear case scenario is $1 and the bull case is $72.
02What is the NLY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NLY is $25 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+11.7% from today), and the low-end target is $23 (+2.8%). The base case model target is $21.
03Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) stock overvalued in 2026?
NLY trades at 7.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NLY in 2026 are: (1) Financing Costs & Interest Rates — Annaly's business model relies heavily on borrowing at lower short-term interest rates to invest in higher-yielding mortgage-backed securities. (2) Leverage Risks — Annaly employs substantial financial leverage to enhance portfolio returns, which can amplify profits but also increases the risk to cash flows and dividends. (3) Dividend Volatility — Annaly has a history of dividend cuts, notably in 2020 and 2023, due to earnings pressure. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NLY will report consensus revenue of $6.4B (-4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.78 (-4.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.7B in revenue.
06When does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NLY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. generate?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) had a free cash outflow of $222M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. NLY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (13.1% yield) and share repurchases ($14M TTM).