NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)
Valuation Overview•Is NMI Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 84/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Elite compounder with fortress-level fundamentals across every core pillar.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
NMIH exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (10.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (13.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 70.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $180.5M | +8.4% | +10.4% | +10.1% | +28.9% | |
| EBITDA | $128.3M | — | +10.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $94.2M | +8.0% | +9.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.20 | +11.1% | +13.2% | +18.2% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $60.1M | +6.7% | +10.9% | +11.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 91.8% | 94.3% | 96.1% | 95.5% |
| Operating Margin | 70.8% | 71.1% | 69.3% | 54.4% |
| Net Margin | 55.1% | 55.4% | 53.9% | 46.0% |
| FCF Margin | 58.4% | 58.5% | 59.5% | 54.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.22 | $1.28 | +4.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.17 | $1.20 | +2.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.21 | $1.21 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.16 | $1.22 | +5.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.10 | $1.28 | +16.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.11 | $1.07 | -3.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.14 | $1.15 | +0.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.05 | $1.20 | +14.3% |
Total return is -7.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -32.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -7.7% | -17.0% | — |
| 1Y | -7.2% | -32.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +14.1% | -5.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +10.6% | -3.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +20.7% | +7.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) valuation, health, and returns.
NMI Holdings, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +202.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $113.46)
NMI Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $113.46 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $44.57 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $45.33 (implying +20.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NMI Holdings, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 84/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.5%.
NMI Holdings, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 3.7% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -2.8% in the last 12 months.
NMI Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +8.4% 1Y revenue growth and +11.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +10.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 20 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +20.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NMI Holdings, Inc. include: -18.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.30x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.