MODEL VERDICT
NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $37.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $41.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $38.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $48.74 | +31.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $39.87 | +7.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $45.25 | +21.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $48.74 | +31.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $44.20 | +18.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $15.07 | -59.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $43.95 | +18.1% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.22 | +24.2% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $21 | $32 | $42 | $53 | $63 |
| Conservative (12%) | $22 | $33 | $44 | $55 | $66 |
| Base Case (18.2%) | $23 | $35 | $47 | $58 | $70 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $25 | $37 | $49 | $61 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.97 | 8.29 | 6.17 | 13.43 | 2.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.27 | 6.76 | 5.25 | 10.58 | 1.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.56 | 7.04 | 5.53 | 10.71 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 7.73 | 7.47 | 5.94 | 11.67 | 1.90 |
| P/FFO | 8.57 | 8.03 | 5.90 | 12.76 | 2.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 1.34 | 1.16 | 2.67 | 0.53 |
| P/AFFO | 8.94 | 8.25 | 6.11 | 13.50 | 2.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.11 | 2.49 | 0.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.45 | 4.30 | 3.43 | 6.25 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates NMIH's fair value at $46.22 vs the current price of $37.21, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.87 (P10) to $48.56 (P90), with a median of $44.67.
NMIH's current P/E of 7.6x compares to the industry median of 9.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -23.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
20 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.50 (range: $43.00 — $44.00), implying +16.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NMIH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (50.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 900.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.