Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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NMR Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $165.9B | $340.7B | $362.1B | $301.1B | $316.8B | $414.4B | $469.5B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $52.75 | $111.03 | $118.99 | $105.07 | $111.40 | $146.85 | $167.62 |
| YoY Growth | — | +105.4% | +6.3% | -16.9% | +5.2% | +30.8% | +13.3% |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
USD · NMR · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.76T | $4.27T | $4.51T | $5.92T | $6.72T |
| Net Income | $362.1B | $301.1B | $316.8B | $414.4B | $469.5B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $118.99 | $105.07 | $111.40 | $146.85 | $167.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-1.20T | $90.3B | $95.0B | $124.3B | $140.9B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NMR stock.
Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $105.07. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 36/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Nomura Holdings, Inc.: Bear case $N/A, Base case $1193, and Bull case $3191. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -10.2%, reaching approximately $4272.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 36/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 10.5% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 12761.9% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.