MODEL VERDICT
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $7.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $7.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $2172.94 | +27722.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $1954.46 | +24925.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $1903.61 | +24274.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $3279.50 | +41891.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $2168.42 | +27664.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $9.70 | +24.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1382.33 | +17599.5% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $770 | $1027 | $1283 | $1540 | $1796 |
| Conservative (13%) | $805 | $1073 | $1341 | $1610 | $1878 |
| Base Case (19.6%) | $854 | $1138 | $1423 | $1708 | $1992 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $903 | $1204 | $1505 | $1806 | $2107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 82.58 | 85.72 | 24.12 | 144.82 | 37.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 65.02 | 67.89 | 21.42 | 102.64 | 25.17 |
| P/FFO | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 4.89 | 4.37 | 3.30 | 7.56 | 1.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NMR's fair value at $1382.33 vs the current price of $7.81, implying +17599.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1382.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1007.81 (P10) to $1402.96 (P90), with a median of $1199.76.
NMR's current P/E of 10.3x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -43.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover NMR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.79 (range: $5.79 — $5.79), implying -25.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NMR trades at the 2160th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NMR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5280.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.