MODEL VERDICT
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.09 | Pending | +2.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $3054.14 | +33834.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $4258.66 | +47218.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $5030.73 | +55797.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $2424.48 | +26838.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $3088.80 | +34220.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $11.73 | +30.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2206.86 | +24420.6% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $1043 | $1275 | $1506 | $1738 | $1970 |
| Conservative (7%) | $1070 | $1308 | $1546 | $1783 | $2021 |
| Base Case (10.9%) | $1108 | $1354 | $1601 | $1847 | $2093 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $1146 | $1401 | $1656 | $1910 | $2165 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 92.32 | 88.50 | 54.79 | 144.82 | 29.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 210.08 | 72.68 | 48.46 | 1036.83 | 364.92 |
| P/FFO | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 4.20 | 4.08 | 2.74 | 5.97 | 1.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NMR's fair value at $2206.86 vs the current price of $9.00, implying +24420.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2206.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1548.87 (P10) to $2632.74 (P90), with a median of $2066.88.
NMR's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -54.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover NMR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.79 (range: $5.79 — $5.79), implying -35.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NMR trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NMR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 0.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.