MODEL VERDICT
Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $16.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $16.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $16.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $15.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $15.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $23.89 | +48.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $25.06 | +56.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $21.41 | +33.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $4.03 | -74.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $12.88 | -19.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $21.68 | +35.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $30.67 | +91.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $51.23 | +219.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $34.27 | +113.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.42 | +14.8% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (8%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.77 | 23.21 | 4.92 | 45.67 | 13.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.00 | 18.49 | 4.68 | 28.11 | 8.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.13 | 9.88 | 4.27 | 14.56 | 3.28 |
| P/FCF | 11.72 | 2.62 | 1.72 | 30.81 | 16.54 |
| P/FFO | 8.77 | 9.26 | 4.20 | 14.29 | 3.21 |
| P/TBV | 9.96 | 10.32 | 5.03 | 13.29 | 3.09 |
| P/AFFO | 10.40 | 11.16 | 4.29 | 15.80 | 3.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.81 | 1.49 | 1.22 | 2.59 | 0.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.69 | 1.32 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NMRK's fair value at $18.42 vs the current price of $16.04, implying +14.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.31 (P10) to $20.98 (P90), with a median of $18.13.
NMRK's current P/E of 23.6x compares to the industry median of 31.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -26.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
11 analysts cover NMRK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $21.00 — $21.00), implying +30.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NMRK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8520.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.