MODEL VERDICT
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $44.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $43.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $41.04 | Below threshold | +4.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $69.45 | +53.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $40.18 | -11.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $50.13 | +10.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $68.42 | +51.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $52.90 | +16.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $37.74 | -16.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.14 | +30.5% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $39 | $43 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $40 | $44 | $49 | $53 | $58 |
| Base Case (11.2%) | $41 | $46 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $43 | $48 | $52 | $57 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.01 | 24.21 | 19.00 | 34.37 | 7.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.19 | 26.30 | 20.46 | 28.21 | 3.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.80 | 16.86 | 8.68 | 19.55 | 3.59 |
| P/FCF | 13.96 | 13.83 | 11.17 | 17.64 | 2.27 |
| P/FFO | 14.48 | 14.32 | 11.32 | 18.14 | 2.78 |
| P/TBV | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.19 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.63 | 2.15 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.28 | 10.34 | 8.04 | 13.20 | 1.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates NNN's fair value at $59.14 vs the current price of $45.32, implying +30.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.21 (P10) to $62.35 (P90), with a median of $55.20.
NNN's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -9.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover NNN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $44.93 (range: $43.00 — $48.50), implying -0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NNN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (40.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1460.0% to approximately $52. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.