MODEL VERDICT
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $43.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $45.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $44.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $44.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $56.92 | +29.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $54.75 | +24.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $52.04 | +18.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $34.91 | -20.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $68.54 | +55.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $59.03 | +34.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $38.76 | -11.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $42.93 | -2.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.31 | +23.6% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (7%) | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 |
| Base Case (11.2%) | $39 | $44 | $48 | $53 | $58 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $41 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.01 | 24.21 | 19.00 | 34.37 | 7.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.55 | 24.67 | 20.46 | 28.21 | 3.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.65 | 16.86 | 14.36 | 19.55 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 13.96 | 13.83 | 11.17 | 17.64 | 2.27 |
| P/FFO | 14.48 | 14.32 | 11.32 | 18.14 | 2.78 |
| P/TBV | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.19 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.63 | 2.15 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.28 | 10.34 | 8.04 | 13.20 | 1.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates NNN's fair value at $54.31 vs the current price of $43.95, implying +23.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.67 (P10) to $55.32 (P90), with a median of $51.95.
NNN's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 33.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -35.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover NNN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.06 (range: $43.00 — $50.00), implying +4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NNN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (40.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2020.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.