NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN)
Valuation Overview•Is NNN REIT, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 52/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NNN demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 63.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $240.4M | +6.6% | +6.2% | +7.0% | +6.7% | |
| EBITDA | $217.4M | — | +5.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $94.0M | -1.8% | +5.2% | — | +7.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.50 | -3.7% | +3.1% | +11.2% | +5.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | +5.0% | +4.9% | +8.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 81.4% | 77.0% | 84.7% | 90.3% |
| Operating Margin | 63.3% | 65.0% | 63.9% | 62.2% |
| Net Margin | 41.4% | 45.0% | 43.7% | 43.5% |
| FCF Margin | 49.6% | 73.0% | 74.4% | 74.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.51 | $0.87 | +71.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.49 | $0.87 | +76.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.86 | $0.86 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.84 | $0.85 | +1.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.83 | $0.87 | +4.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.82 | $0.82 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.84 | $0.84 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.83 | $0.84 | +1.2% |
Total return is +11.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -14.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +16.9% | +7.6% | — |
| 1Y | +11.0% | -14.0% | +5.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +6.9% | -12.5% | +16.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +3.6% | -9.2% | +24.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +3.5% | -10.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) valuation, health, and returns.
NNN REIT, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $50.87)
NNN REIT, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $50.87 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $57.35 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $46.93 (implying +4.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NNN REIT, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 52/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.8%.
NNN REIT, Inc. pays a 5.2% dividend yield, covered by a 114% payout ratio with 36 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
NNN REIT, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +6.6% 1Y revenue growth and -3.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 29 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +4.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NNN REIT, Inc. include: -11.5% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.05x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.