MODEL VERDICT
Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $11.82 | CURRENT | -13.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.05 | Pending | -15.2% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.00 | Pending | -15.7% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.04 | Pending | -16.8% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.85 | Monitoring | -7.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 86 industry peers | $386.95 | +3173.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 97 industry peers | $730.10 | +6076.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 91 bank peers | $783.41 | +6527.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 65 industry peers | $2690.95 | +22666.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 88 industry peers | $412.95 | +3393.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 84 analyst estimates | $103.17 | +772.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $529.21 | +4377.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $138 | $138 | $138 | $138 | $207 |
| Conservative (5%) | $142 | $142 | $142 | $142 | $213 |
| Base Case (-12.8%) | $118 | $118 | $118 | $118 | $177 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $112 | $112 | $112 | $112 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.65 | 0.18 |
| P/FCF | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 0.80 | 0.22 |
| P/FFO | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.59 | 0.17 |
| P/TBV | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/AFFO | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.69 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOAH's fair value at $529.21 vs the current price of $11.82, implying +4377.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $529.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $208.68 (P10) to $494.91 (P90), with a median of $340.25.
NOAH's current P/E of 2.4x compares to the industry median of 11.5x (86 peers in the group). This represents a -79.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover NOAH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying -15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NOAH trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NOAH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (19.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1520.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.