Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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NOAH Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $977M | $1.0B | $475M | $382M | $321M | $345M | $356M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $71.40 | $72.65 | $33.75 | $26.75 | $22.16 | $23.47 | $23.85 |
| YoY Growth | — | +3.4% | -52.9% | -19.6% | -16.0% | +7.4% | +3.0% |
| Net Margin | 31.5% | 30.6% | 18.3% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 22.3% | 22.8% |
USD · NOAH · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Net Income | $475M | $382M | $321M | $345M | $356M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $33.75 | $26.75 | $22.16 | $23.47 | $23.85 |
| Free Cash Flow | $305M | $134M | $118M | $104M | $107M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NOAH stock.
Noah Holdings Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $26.75. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 30/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Noah Holdings Limited: Bear case $N/A, Base case $N/A, and Bull case $N/A. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Noah Holdings Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -16.9%, reaching approximately $2.2B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 30/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Noah Holdings Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 29.8% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 168.3% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.