MODEL VERDICT
Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $9.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $9.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $9.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $9.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $9.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $18.63 | +95.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $19.19 | +101.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $14.51 | +52.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $25.44 | +167.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $16.98 | +78.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $25.25 | +165.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.80 | +118.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.66 | +138.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $14.08 | +47.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $24.95 | +162.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.85 | +98.0% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (-3.0%) | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.56 | 15.00 | 11.99 | 29.05 | 6.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.09 | 17.69 | 11.05 | 26.47 | 5.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.21 | 10.65 | 8.84 | 15.68 | 3.08 |
| P/FCF | 12.28 | 12.63 | 7.45 | 19.91 | 4.79 |
| P/FFO | 12.87 | 10.09 | 7.64 | 19.97 | 5.24 |
| P/AFFO | 17.30 | 14.13 | 11.21 | 26.07 | 6.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.45 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 2.37 | 0.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.62 | 2.00 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOMD's fair value at $18.85 vs the current price of $9.52, implying +98.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.22 (P10) to $23.71 (P90), with a median of $20.45.
NOMD's current P/E of 8.9x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -44.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover NOMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $12.00 — $15.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NOMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17410.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.