MODEL VERDICT
EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $285.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $294.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $281.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $265.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $278.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $221.00 | -22.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $210.08 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $75.54 | -73.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $307.24 | +7.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $156.62 | -45.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $295.44 | +3.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $201.45 | -29.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $223.49 | -21.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $83.46 | -70.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $282.22 | -1.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $166.84 | -41.6% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 126× | 138× | 150× (Current) | 162× | 174× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $245 | $269 | $292 | $316 | $339 |
| Conservative (5%) | $253 | $277 | $301 | $325 | $349 |
| Base Case (-26.6%) | $177 | $193 | $210 | $227 | $244 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $154 | $169 | $184 | $198 | $213 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 54.27 | 36.15 | 8.41 | 149.28 | 55.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.16 | 40.19 | 30.28 | 79.85 | 18.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.99 | 19.05 | 15.33 | 23.89 | 3.21 |
| P/FCF | 23.65 | 23.27 | 7.48 | 41.62 | 10.63 |
| P/FFO | 16.74 | 13.10 | 6.61 | 31.38 | 10.17 |
| P/AFFO | 21.58 | 16.44 | 7.01 | 44.39 | 15.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.37 | 2.91 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.63 | 2.72 | 1.15 | 3.93 | 0.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NPO's fair value at $166.84 vs the current price of $285.94, implying -41.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $166.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $168.34 (P10) to $243.18 (P90), with a median of $206.06.
NPO's current P/E of 149.7x compares to the industry median of 39.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +278.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 54.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover NPO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $297.50 (range: $285.00 — $310.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.5% is 6.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.4%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$215. (2) Multiple compression: NPO trades at the 9580th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (54.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NPO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2470.0% to approximately $215. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.