MODEL VERDICT
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $153.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $159.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $167.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $168.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $164.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $96.11 | -37.3% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $175.44 | +14.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $172.08 | +12.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $62.82 | -59.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $122.42 | -20.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $118.52 | -22.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $669.07 | +336.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $96.12 | -37.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $143.05 | -6.7% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $134 | $147 | $160 | $173 | $186 |
| Conservative (10%) | $139 | $152 | $166 | $179 | $193 |
| Base Case (14.6%) | $145 | $159 | $173 | $187 | $202 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $152 | $166 | $181 | $196 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.75 | 12.12 | 2.36 | 38.93 | 13.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.43 | 13.84 | 5.56 | 48.94 | 15.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.85 | 8.64 | 4.45 | 13.23 | 3.40 |
| P/FCF | 16.64 | 8.65 | 5.33 | 43.92 | 18.31 |
| P/FFO | 6.92 | 7.57 | 2.13 | 11.93 | 3.82 |
| P/TBV | 59.61 | 27.59 | 20.01 | 163.25 | 69.37 |
| P/AFFO | 19.53 | 12.72 | 2.40 | 64.41 | 22.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.92 | 5.50 | 1.96 | 20.01 | 6.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.24 | 1.10 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NRG's fair value at $143.05 vs the current price of $153.37, implying -6.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $143.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.20 (P10) to $159.37 (P90), with a median of $141.95.
NRG's current P/E of 37.5x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +59.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover NRG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $194.00 (range: $159.00 — $211.00), implying +26.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NRG trades at the 6000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3670.0% to approximately $210. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.