MODEL VERDICT
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $3.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $3.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $3.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $4.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $5.29 | Below threshold | -20.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $3.52 | +17.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.22 | +7.4% | 100% | 46 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.88 | 1.50 | 1.34 | 2.81 | 0.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.49 | 1.34 | 2.71 | 0.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.67 | 2.64 | 0.97 | 7.40 | 3.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates NRGV's fair value at $3.22 vs the current price of $3.00, implying +7.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NRGV's current P/E of -3.3x compares to the industry median of 41.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -108.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover NRGV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.75 (range: $0.75 — $5.00), implying -8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (3), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NRGV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.