MODEL VERDICT
Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $103.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $115.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $118.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $124.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $115.35 | Below threshold | +6.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $81.80 | -21.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $81.43 | -21.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $15.87 | -84.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $66.49 | -35.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $67.87 | -34.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $10.17 | -90.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $89.80 | -13.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $74.64 | -28.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.80 | -26.9% | 100% | 77 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $89 | $97 | $105 | $113 | $122 |
| Conservative (5%) | $91 | $100 | $108 | $117 | $125 |
| Base Case (4.1%) | $90 | $99 | $107 | $116 | $124 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $92 | $100 | $109 | $117 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.62 | 54.69 | 33.20 | 73.91 | 16.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.87 | 27.10 | 23.04 | 39.34 | 6.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.24 | 15.45 | 14.64 | 19.46 | 1.73 |
| P/FFO | 16.04 | 16.48 | 10.65 | 19.37 | 3.18 |
| P/TBV | 2.46 | 2.71 | 1.49 | 3.04 | 0.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.05 | 2.23 | 1.35 | 2.52 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.02 | 6.65 | 4.68 | 6.85 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ORA's fair value at $75.80 vs the current price of $103.70, implying -26.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.97 (P10) to $85.14 (P90), with a median of $74.55.
ORA's current P/E of 51.3x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +26.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
17 analysts cover ORA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $132.71 (range: $108.00 — $148.00), implying +28.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ORA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 180.0% to approximately $102. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.