MODEL VERDICT
AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $12.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.61 | Pending | +17.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $34.02 | +181.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $11.94 | -1.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $3.58 | -70.4% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $254.45 | +2006.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $18.31 | +51.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $14.87 | +23.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $52.80 | +337.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $31.04 | +157.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.68 | +402.3% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 62× | 68× | 74× (Current) | 80× | 86× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $69 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $60 | $65 | $71 | $76 |
| Base Case (0.7%) | $52 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXIA's fair value at $60.68 vs the current price of $12.08, implying +402.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.25 (P10) to $65.03 (P90), with a median of $50.29.
AXIA's current P/E of 74.2x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +83.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover AXIA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AXIA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.