MODEL VERDICT
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $31.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $31.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $31.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $30.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $26.93 | Pending | +14.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $42.52 | +33.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $432.21 | +1260.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $24.33 | -23.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $135.24 | +325.6% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 22.36 | 21.96 | 14.53 | 33.30 | 7.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.88 | 12.13 | 6.97 | 12.97 | 2.46 |
| P/FFO | 5.39 | 4.46 | 3.16 | 10.53 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.47 | 1.11 | 3.10 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates BEP's fair value at $135.24 vs the current price of $31.78, implying +325.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $135.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.97 (P10) to $118.79 (P90), with a median of $91.42.
BEP's current P/E of -471.5x compares to the industry median of 41.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -1248.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover BEP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.63 (range: $28.00 — $39.00), implying +9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BEP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.