MODEL VERDICT
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $873.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $830.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $802.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $790.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $622.50 | Below threshold | +28.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $716.38 | -18.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $136.76 | -84.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $33.38 | -96.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $402.70 | -53.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $882.19 | +1.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $157.98 | -81.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $884.20 | +1.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $653.68 | -25.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $430.54 | -50.7% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $754 | $828 | $901 | $975 | $1049 |
| Conservative (7%) | $772 | $848 | $923 | $999 | $1074 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $798 | $876 | $953 | $1031 | $1109 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $823 | $904 | $984 | $1064 | $1144 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEV's fair value at $430.54 vs the current price of $873.60, implying -50.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $430.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $350.38 (P10) to $462.88 (P90), with a median of $406.83.
GEV's current P/E of 49.4x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +21.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Premium.
27 analysts cover GEV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $834.72 (range: $475.00 — $1087.00), implying -4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.8% is 11.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (1.7%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$114. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GEV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8690.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.