National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Valuation Overview•Is National Storage Affiliates Trust Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 41/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NSA demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-2.1% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 31.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $185.4M | -2.3% | -2.1% | +11.7% | +18.8% | |
| EBITDA | $74.3M | — | -3.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $28.6M | -33.8% | -10.7% | — | +19.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.16 | -40.7% | -10.9% | +5.7% | +13.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $76.9M | -12.5% | -9.2% | +8.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 28.4% | 63.9% | 67.8% | 68.7% |
| Operating Margin | 31.9% | 38.3% | 37.6% | 37.4% |
| Net Margin | 11.9% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| FCF Margin | 39.6% | 43.9% | 46.7% | 45.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.12 | $0.57 | +388.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.55 | $0.57 | +3.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.56 | $0.57 | +1.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.58 | $0.55 | -5.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.56 | $0.54 | -3.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.19 | $0.60 | +215.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.60 | $0.62 | +3.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.63 | $0.62 | -1.6% |
Total return is +43.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +21.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +65.3% | +57.9% | — |
| 1Y | +43.5% | +21.2% | +6.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +15.2% | -5.4% | +20.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +1.7% | -9.2% | +21.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +11.7% | -1.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) valuation, health, and returns.
National Storage Affiliates Trust is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +45.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $64.84)
National Storage Affiliates Trust has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $64.84 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $59.59 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $36.20 (implying -19.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
National Storage Affiliates Trust displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 41/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.1%.
National Storage Affiliates Trust pays a 5.1% dividend yield, covered by a 237% payout ratio with 11 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
National Storage Affiliates Trust's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -2.3% 1Y revenue growth and -40.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -2.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 19 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -19.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for National Storage Affiliates Trust include: -17.3% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.73x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.