MODEL VERDICT
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $42.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $43.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $43.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $41.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $41.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $53.32 | +25.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $52.83 | +24.3% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $110.93 | +161.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $47.32 | +11.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $60.52 | +42.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $19.05 | -55.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $16.02 | -62.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $124.17 | +192.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $82.09 | +93.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.52 | +35.4% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (5.7%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.59 | 36.48 | 28.02 | 67.98 | 16.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.87 | 23.90 | 7.67 | 55.51 | 14.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.42 | 13.08 | 4.62 | 32.53 | 8.67 |
| P/FCF | 13.21 | 11.17 | 7.21 | 30.69 | 8.14 |
| P/FFO | 15.91 | 14.48 | 8.22 | 35.32 | 9.30 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.35 | 3.87 | 0.96 |
| P/AFFO | 18.09 | 14.51 | 9.63 | 39.52 | 10.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.01 | 1.65 | 1.35 | 3.75 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.34 | 5.11 | 2.87 | 15.90 | 4.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NSA's fair value at $57.52 vs the current price of $42.49, implying +35.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.94 (P10) to $69.70 (P90), with a median of $60.35.
NSA's current P/E of 60.7x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +123.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover NSA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $33.33 (range: $29.00 — $41.00), implying -21.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NSA trades at the 9330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (42.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NSA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 820.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.