MODEL VERDICT
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $164.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $164.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $159.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $156.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $152.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $150.05 | -8.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $124.64 | -24.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $194.38 | +18.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $147.56 | -10.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $149.13 | -9.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $125.04 | -24.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $147.60 | -10.3% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $136 | $154 | $173 | $191 | $209 |
| Conservative (6%) | $140 | $158 | $177 | $195 | $214 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $144 | $163 | $182 | $202 | $221 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $149 | $168 | $188 | $208 | $228 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.28 | 16.02 | 10.49 | 17.06 | 2.29 |
| P/FCF | 13.43 | 11.29 | 4.72 | 29.71 | 8.62 |
| P/FFO | 10.35 | 10.05 | 7.53 | 12.12 | 1.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.56 | 2.21 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 11.56 | 12.37 | 7.82 | 13.95 | 2.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.79 | 1.67 | 1.47 | 2.08 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.46 | 2.38 | 1.30 | 3.85 | 0.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTRS's fair value at $147.60 vs the current price of $164.48, implying -10.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $147.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $129.07 (P10) to $154.37 (P90), with a median of $141.35.
NTRS's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +9.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
35 analysts cover NTRS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $153.75 (range: $148.00 — $160.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (17), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NTRS trades at the 6290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NTRS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 600.0% to approximately $174. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.