Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)
Valuation Overview•Is Northern Trust Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 51/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
NTRS demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($44.7B) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (12.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 19.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | -2.5% | +6.1% | +5.8% | +11.6% | |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | — | +11.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $792.2M | -14.5% | +9.1% | — | +6.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.23 | -10.5% | +12.5% | +9.9% | +8.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $154.6M | +543.3% | +48.4% | +32.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.8% | 54.8% | 70.5% | 81.7% |
| Operating Margin | 19.8% | 15.0% | 19.8% | 24.1% |
| Net Margin | 14.8% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 18.1% |
| FCF Margin | 0.9% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 19.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $2.71 | $2.97 | +9.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | $2.32 | $2.71 | +16.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.37 | $2.69 | +13.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.26 | $2.29 | +1.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.06 | $2.13 | +3.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.85 | $1.90 | +2.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.96 | $2.26 | +15.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.74 | $2.01 | +15.5% |
Total return is +34.1% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +18.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +26.3% | +13.1% | — |
| 1Y | +34.1% | +18.1% | +2.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +38.1% | +17.8% | +13.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +12.1% | +1.1% | +14.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +11.2% | -2.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) valuation, health, and returns.
Northern Trust Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -19.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $144.04)
Northern Trust Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $144.04 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $178.00 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $183.17 (implying +5.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Northern Trust Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 51/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.0%.
Northern Trust Corporation pays a 1.8% dividend yield, covered by a 34% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 4.0% buyback yield.
Northern Trust Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -2.5% 1Y revenue growth and -10.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 35 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 11-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +5.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Northern Trust Corporation include: -12.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.94x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.