MODEL VERDICT
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $369.98 | +742.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $443.59 | +910.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $445.87 | +915.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $285.71 | +550.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $550.82 | +1154.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $299.32 | +581.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $488.16 | +1012.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $313.90 | +615.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $305.26 | +595.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $445.87 | +915.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $285.72 | +550.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $341.94 | +678.9% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $199 | $249 | $299 | $349 | $399 |
| Conservative (13%) | $209 | $261 | $313 | $366 | $418 |
| Base Case (20.6%) | $222 | $278 | $333 | $389 | $444 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $236 | $295 | $353 | $412 | $471 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.27 | 3.88 | 2.21 | 5.56 | 1.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.68 | 3.66 | 2.51 | 4.62 | 0.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.31 | 3.44 | 2.29 | 4.26 | 0.86 |
| P/FCF | 5.10 | 5.42 | 3.87 | 6.64 | 0.97 |
| P/FFO | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.89 | 4.99 | 1.15 |
| P/TBV | 12.20 | 10.07 | 3.54 | 23.30 | 6.43 |
| P/AFFO | 5.56 | 6.06 | 3.80 | 6.91 | 1.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.74 | 3.68 | 1.17 | 15.91 | 6.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.32 | 0.76 | 2.00 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVO's fair value at $341.94 vs the current price of $43.90, implying +678.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $341.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $260.93 (P10) to $331.56 (P90), with a median of $295.38.
NVO's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -37.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover NVO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.00 (range: $42.00 — $54.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVO trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12780.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.