Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$37.45
→
Intrinsic$390.53
+943%
$253.59$390.53$662.76
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NVO could have 943% upside at 21% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $37, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 21%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $254 → Bull $663. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 17% | 19% | 21% | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $497 | $541 | $587 | $637 |
| 10% | $331 | $360 | $391 | $423 |
| 12% | $243 | $264 | $287 | $311 |
| 14% | $189 | $206 | $223 | $242 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($663) offers 1670% upside at 25% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (21%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($254) with 17% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 21% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$68.40B
Year 2$82.53B
Year 3$99.57B
Year 4$120.12B
Year 5$144.92B
Terminal$2.30T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$56.70BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.