MODEL VERDICT
NVR, Inc. (NVR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $6164.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $6508.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $7007.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $6774.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $6750.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $5078.62 | -17.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $5472.29 | -11.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $4679.95 | -24.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $6357.52 | +3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $5716.52 | -7.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $7418.98 | +20.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $4579.42 | -25.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $4799.08 | -22.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $4208.72 | -31.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $4679.95 | -24.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $7985.52 | +29.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6125.38 | -0.6% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $4604 | $5525 | $6446 | $7367 | $8287 |
| Conservative (9%) | $4753 | $5704 | $6655 | $7605 | $8556 |
| Base Case (13.7%) | $4964 | $5956 | $6949 | $7942 | $8934 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $5169 | $6203 | $7236 | $8270 | $9304 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.82 | 16.71 | 9.38 | 18.44 | 3.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.68 | 12.07 | 6.40 | 13.97 | 2.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.57 | 12.74 | 6.71 | 15.14 | 2.92 |
| P/FCF | 17.11 | 17.93 | 8.74 | 20.41 | 3.96 |
| P/FFO | 15.56 | 16.40 | 9.28 | 18.15 | 2.94 |
| P/TBV | 5.94 | 5.79 | 4.61 | 7.59 | 0.99 |
| P/AFFO | 15.83 | 16.70 | 9.38 | 18.41 | 3.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.94 | 5.79 | 4.61 | 7.59 | 0.99 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 2.57 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVR's fair value at $6125.38 vs the current price of $6164.99, implying -0.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6125.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5488.87 (P10) to $6584.88 (P90), with a median of $6023.01.
NVR's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 10.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +31.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover NVR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7465.33 (range: $6600.00 — $8096.00), implying +21.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (10), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5500.0% to approximately $9557. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.