MODEL VERDICT
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $52.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $53.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $54.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $54.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $55.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $42.02 | -20.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $79.35 | +50.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $73.48 | +39.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $59.67 | +12.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $52.36 | -0.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $99.81 | +88.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $42.02 | -20.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.90 | +9.5% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $60 | $64 |
| Base Case (-0.4%) | $44 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.11 | 19.49 | 15.03 | 35.62 | 6.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.10 | 19.90 | 15.41 | 26.73 | 3.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.94 | 10.80 | 9.57 | 13.72 | 1.34 |
| P/FFO | 8.52 | 7.80 | 5.99 | 14.37 | 2.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.26 | 2.87 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 9.93 | 8.01 | 7.34 | 16.38 | 4.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.66 | 1.58 | 1.10 | 2.54 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 1.74 | 1.18 | 2.95 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWN's fair value at $57.90 vs the current price of $52.86, implying +9.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.50 (P10) to $65.38 (P90), with a median of $59.81.
NWN's current P/E of 26.0x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +25.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
8 analysts cover NWN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $57.00 (range: $55.00 — $58.00), implying +7.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NWN trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1020.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.