MODEL VERDICT
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $1.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $1.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $1.98 | Below threshold | -12.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $2.37 | Below threshold | -26.6% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.71 | Scaled in | +1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 33 industry peers | $1.19 | -25.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 33 industry peers | $0.87 | -45.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.34 | -16.0% | 100% | 48 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 2.02 | 0.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.53 | 1.42 | 1.28 | 2.01 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.16 | 3.68 | 3.28 | 6.01 | 1.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXDR's fair value at $1.34 vs the current price of $1.60, implying -16.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.03 (P10) to $1.80 (P90), with a median of $1.41.
NXDR's current P/E of -6.4x compares to the industry median of 16.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -137.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover NXDR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.25 (range: $2.50 — $3.75), implying +103.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NXDR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.