MODEL VERDICT
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $124.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $135.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $137.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $147.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $143.54 | Pending | +2.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $671.39 | +439.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $16.83 | -86.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $1224.84 | +884.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $511.12 | +310.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $387.20 | +211.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $338.13 | +171.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $3787.10 | +2943.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $869.18 | +598.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $1115.96 | +796.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $1677.93 | +1248.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $494.33 | +297.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $658.19 | +428.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (24%) | $734 | $897 | $1061 | $1224 | $1387 |
| Conservative (39%) | $822 | $1005 | $1188 | $1371 | $1554 |
| Base Case (59.4%) | $946 | $1156 | $1366 | $1576 | $1786 |
| Bull Case (80%) | $1069 | $1307 | $1544 | $1782 | $2019 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.65 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 19.75 | 6.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.53 | 4.63 | 2.67 | 32.13 | 10.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.08 | 2.91 | 2.34 | 3.97 | 0.61 |
| P/FCF | 3.54 | 3.95 | 1.67 | 5.89 | 1.54 |
| P/FFO | 1.56 | 1.80 | 0.77 | 2.08 | 0.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.48 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 4.96 | 2.57 | 0.97 | 21.03 | 7.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BIDU's fair value at $658.19 vs the current price of $124.44, implying +428.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $658.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $373.42 (P10) to $698.81 (P90), with a median of $527.59.
BIDU's current P/E of 13.0x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -30.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
52 analysts cover BIDU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $158.64 (range: $110.00 — $215.00), implying +27.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BIDU trades at the 3680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BIDU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 49200.0% to approximately $737. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.