MODEL VERDICT
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $125.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $128.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $126.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $120.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $108.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $714.76 | +467.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $70.41 | -44.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $1708.32 | +1257.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $734.71 | +483.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $1003.81 | +697.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $307.36 | +144.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $5513.97 | +4280.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $1154.18 | +816.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $1357.36 | +978.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $1708.30 | +1257.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $684.73 | +444.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $849.19 | +574.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (24%) | $734 | $897 | $1061 | $1224 | $1387 |
| Conservative (39%) | $822 | $1005 | $1188 | $1371 | $1554 |
| Base Case (59.4%) | $946 | $1156 | $1366 | $1576 | $1786 |
| Bull Case (80%) | $1069 | $1307 | $1544 | $1782 | $2019 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.65 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 19.75 | 6.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.53 | 4.63 | 2.67 | 32.13 | 10.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.08 | 2.91 | 2.34 | 3.97 | 0.61 |
| P/FCF | 3.54 | 3.95 | 1.67 | 5.89 | 1.54 |
| P/FFO | 1.56 | 1.80 | 0.77 | 2.08 | 0.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.48 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 4.96 | 2.57 | 0.97 | 21.03 | 7.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BIDU's fair value at $849.19 vs the current price of $125.88, implying +574.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $849.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $497.81 (P10) to $753.01 (P90), with a median of $621.10.
BIDU's current P/E of 13.0x compares to the industry median of 25.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -49.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
53 analysts cover BIDU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $154.70 (range: $110.00 — $215.00), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (40), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BIDU trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BIDU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 48520.0% to approximately $737. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.