NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)
Valuation Overview•Is NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NXRT demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 11.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.5M | -3.2% | -1.6% | +4.2% | +7.9% | |
| EBITDA | $32.8M | — | -4.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$6.8M | -2985.3% | -51.2% | — | -11.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.27 | -3078.7% | — | — | -9.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.3M | +13.6% | +1.9% | +7.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 91.1% | 65.8% | 61.1% | 57.6% |
| Operating Margin | 11.5% | 28.0% | 26.2% | 34.2% |
| Net Margin | -12.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 13.9% |
| FCF Margin | 31.2% | 32.1% | 32.0% | 0.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.36 | $0.68 | +288.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.34 | $0.75 | +322.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.81 | $0.80 | -1.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.77 | $0.84 | +9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.80 | $0.78 | -2.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.76 | $0.79 | +3.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.3% |
Total return is -12.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -37.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -5.2% | -14.5% | — |
| 1Y | -12.7% | -37.7% | +6.3% |
| 3YCAGR | -10.6% | -30.5% | +12.8% |
| 5YCAGR | -8.1% | -21.2% | +16.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.3% | -4.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $26.39 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $27.00 (implying +0.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.1%.
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. pays a 7.8% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 11 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.1% buyback yield.
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -3.2% 1Y revenue growth and -3078.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 10 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +0.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. include: -30.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.50x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.