MODEL VERDICT
Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $47.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $46.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $45.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $44.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $44.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $32.29 | -31.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $52.06 | +10.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $59.30 | +25.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $21.01 | -55.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $32.29 | -31.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $44.49 | -6.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.33 | -10.6% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $40 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 |
| Conservative (6%) | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
| Base Case (9.1%) | $42 | $47 | $52 | $58 | $63 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $43 | $49 | $54 | $59 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.92 | 13.59 | 9.33 | 17.92 | 3.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.77 | 11.45 | 5.85 | 31.96 | 8.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.13 | 9.97 | 5.56 | 27.67 | 7.48 |
| P/FCF | 10.24 | 9.20 | 6.09 | 17.77 | 4.32 |
| P/FFO | 11.93 | 11.13 | 8.78 | 15.10 | 2.43 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.06 | 1.64 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 14.25 | 14.58 | 9.18 | 18.12 | 3.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 1.49 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.46 | 2.28 | 1.68 | 3.49 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OBK's fair value at $42.33 vs the current price of $47.33, implying -10.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.60 (P10) to $44.43 (P90), with a median of $41.52.
OBK's current P/E of 19.7x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +46.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover OBK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.50 (range: $49.00 — $54.00), implying +8.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OBK trades at the 8990th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 650.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.