The ODP Corporation (ODP)
Valuation Overview•Is The ODP Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 27/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
ODP struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-6.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (0.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | -10.6% | -6.2% | -6.3% | -5.8% | |
| EBITDA | $57.0M | — | -11.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $23.0M | -102.2% | +75.7% | — | +37.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.77 | -102.5% | — | — | +35.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $78.0M | -85.8% | -51.1% | -31.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.4% | 21.6% | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Operating Margin | 0.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Net Margin | -0.1% | 1.2% | -0.5% | 0.6% |
| FCF Margin | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | $0.82 | $1.14 | +39.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.33 | $0.51 | +54.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.65 | $1.06 | +63.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.80 | $0.66 | -17.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.49 | $0.71 | -52.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.13 | $0.56 | -50.4% | ||
| Q2'24 | $1.64 | $1.05 | -36.0% | ||
| Q1'24 | $0.76 | $0.92 | +21.1% |
Total return is +69.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +44.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.0% | -9.3% | — |
| 1Y | +69.0% | +44.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -12.5% | -32.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -9.0% | -22.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -0.9% | -14.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about The ODP Corporation (ODP) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, The ODP Corporation appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
The ODP Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $17.10. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
The ODP Corporation displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 27/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.6 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.3%.
The ODP Corporation returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 37.4% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -12.5% in the last 12 months.
The ODP Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -10.6% 1Y revenue growth and -102.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -6.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for The ODP Corporation include: -15.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.13x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.