MODEL VERDICT
The ODP Corporation (ODP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.00 | Pending | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $60.04 | +114.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $27.55 | -1.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $21.08 | -24.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $56.70 | +102.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $285.03 | +918.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $257.13 | +818.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $21.15 | -24.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.02 | +182.2% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.93 | 13.87 | 11.13 | 16.18 | 1.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 84.53 | 9.92 | 8.09 | 534.23 | 198.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.61 | 6.58 | 5.21 | 13.11 | 2.66 |
| P/FCF | 10.33 | 7.63 | 3.28 | 24.87 | 7.68 |
| P/FFO | 7.25 | 7.70 | 4.88 | 9.46 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 2.22 | 2.27 | 1.09 | 3.45 | 0.76 |
| P/AFFO | 13.82 | 13.27 | 11.82 | 16.93 | 2.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 0.99 | 0.68 | 2.05 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ODP's fair value at $79.02 vs the current price of $28.00, implying +182.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.37 (P10) to $120.80 (P90), with a median of $65.74.
ODP's current P/E of -326.7x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -1216.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover ODP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ODP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.