MODEL VERDICT
Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. (OEC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.62 | -53.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $23.15 | +196.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $20.28 | +160.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $12.54 | +60.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $10.67 | +36.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $27.12 | +247.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $39.79 | +410.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $20.18 | +158.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.66 | +75.1% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.02 | 14.81 | 8.31 | 57.13 | 18.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.47 | 12.05 | 8.61 | 33.97 | 8.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.20 | 6.99 | 5.21 | 9.41 | 1.31 |
| P/FCF | 10.39 | 9.61 | 5.92 | 15.64 | 4.90 |
| P/FFO | 6.20 | 5.44 | 4.69 | 9.18 | 1.68 |
| P/TBV | 8.57 | 5.45 | 0.80 | 21.15 | 8.50 |
| P/AFFO | 42.36 | 42.58 | 38.06 | 46.43 | 4.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.46 | 3.48 | 0.77 | 6.36 | 2.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.16 | 0.93 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates OEC's fair value at $13.66 vs the current price of $7.80, implying +75.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.86 (P10) to $17.00 (P90), with a median of $13.88.
OEC's current P/E of -6.3x compares to the industry median of 18.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -134.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover OEC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.88 (range: $5.25 — $6.50), implying -24.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OEC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.