MODEL VERDICT
Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $10.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $10.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $12.87 | +24.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $27.96 | +170.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $23.62 | +128.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1198.87 | +11505.7% | 100% | 36 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.60 | 4.34 | 2.19 | 13.28 | 5.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.73 | 17.54 | 10.76 | 42.11 | 11.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1934.51 | 8.79 | 6.30 | 13488.56 | 5094.86 |
| P/FCF | 10.15 | 10.39 | 6.57 | 13.24 | 3.31 |
| P/FFO | 5.37 | 6.38 | 1.66 | 9.34 | 3.13 |
| P/TBV | 77.71 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 535.10 | 201.69 |
| P/AFFO | 6.62 | 6.15 | 1.97 | 11.75 | 4.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 66.25 | 1.13 | 0.89 | 456.09 | 171.90 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 33.20 | 0.77 | 0.52 | 228.05 | 85.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates TROX's fair value at $1198.87 vs the current price of $10.33, implying +11505.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 36/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1198.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
TROX's current P/E of -3.5x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -117.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover TROX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.25 (range: $4.00 — $9.00), implying -29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 36/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TROX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.