MODEL VERDICT
Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $7.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $7.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $6.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $6.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $22.43 | +184.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $19.62 | +149.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.07 | +192.7% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.75 | 15.32 | 10.44 | 27.11 | 6.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.42 | 10.40 | 7.99 | 19.00 | 4.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.94 | 8.15 | 5.58 | 10.40 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 30.93 | 26.08 | 11.72 | 58.69 | 19.88 |
| P/FFO | 55.79 | 10.54 | 6.76 | 286.03 | 112.82 |
| P/TBV | 1.52 | 1.42 | 0.68 | 2.16 | 0.53 |
| P/AFFO | 15.99 | 15.45 | 9.26 | 26.23 | 6.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.42 | 0.68 | 2.16 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.27 | 1.05 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRO's fair value at $23.07 vs the current price of $7.88, implying +192.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.58 (P10) to $27.69 (P90), with a median of $19.59.
KRO's current P/E of -8.2x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -141.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover KRO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying -36.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.