MODEL VERDICT
OFG Bancorp (OFG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $45.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $45.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $42.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $42.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $42.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $57.06 | +24.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $32.47 | -29.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $39.68 | -13.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $31.95 | -30.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $56.95 | +24.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $52.77 | +15.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.13 | +3.0% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $30 | $40 | $50 | $60 | $70 |
| Conservative (18%) | $32 | $42 | $53 | $64 | $74 |
| Base Case (27.7%) | $34 | $46 | $57 | $69 | $80 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $37 | $49 | $62 | $74 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.30 | 9.81 | 8.01 | 25.66 | 6.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.08 | 5.57 | 3.44 | 9.50 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.50 | 5.19 | 3.13 | 8.42 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 16.35 | 10.00 | 6.42 | 48.53 | 14.62 |
| P/FFO | 10.00 | 8.66 | 7.01 | 19.22 | 4.15 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.05 | 1.83 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 11.69 | 9.43 | 8.37 | 24.15 | 5.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.30 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 1.58 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.35 | 2.41 | 1.77 | 2.84 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OFG's fair value at $47.13 vs the current price of $45.74, implying +3.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.98 (P10) to $52.26 (P90), with a median of $46.53.
OFG's current P/E of 10.2x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -19.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
12 analysts cover OFG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.50 (range: $44.00 — $45.00), implying -2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OFG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1030.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.