ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)
Valuation Overview•Is ONE Gas, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
OGS demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-2.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 20.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $831.7M | +16.5% | -2.0% | +9.7% | +4.6% | |
| EBITDA | $266.4M | — | +10.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $128.7M | +18.6% | +6.0% | — | +8.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.04 | +12.1% | +2.3% | +3.5% | +6.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.8M | +61.6% | — | -3.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 68.0% | 42.3% | 36.8% | 35.3% |
| Operating Margin | 20.1% | 18.0% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| Net Margin | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.6% |
| FCF Margin | -9.4% | -3.3% | -17.0% | -10.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.13 | $2.11 | -0.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.42 | $1.48 | +4.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.44 | $0.44 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.53 | $0.53 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.85 | $1.98 | +7.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.34 | $1.34 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.39 | $0.34 | -12.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.49 | $0.48 | -2.0% |
Total return is +10.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -14.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.9% | -8.4% | — |
| 1Y | +10.7% | -14.2% | +3.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +2.6% | -17.2% | +10.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +3.7% | -9.8% | +17.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.8% | -8.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) valuation, health, and returns.
ONE Gas, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +21.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $93.44)
ONE Gas, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $93.44 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $81.41 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $89.00 (implying +15.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ONE Gas, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.2%.
ONE Gas, Inc. pays a 3.5% dividend yield, covered by a 61% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
ONE Gas, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +16.5% 1Y revenue growth and +12.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -2.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ONE Gas, Inc. include: -16.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.03x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.