MODEL VERDICT
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $88.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $88.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $88.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $88.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $90.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $90.41 | +1.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $147.48 | +65.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $91.54 | +3.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $83.75 | -5.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $141.94 | +59.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $36.11 | -59.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $169.14 | +90.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $90.41 | +1.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.44 | +17.5% | 100% | 93 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $71 | $80 | $89 | $98 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $73 | $83 | $92 | $101 | $110 |
| Base Case (3.5%) | $72 | $81 | $90 | $100 | $109 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $73 | $82 | $92 | $101 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.58 | 18.56 | 15.39 | 26.66 | 3.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.86 | 20.27 | 12.38 | 27.14 | 4.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.86 | 12.22 | 7.31 | 16.10 | 2.91 |
| P/FFO | 9.41 | 9.14 | 6.96 | 13.57 | 2.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.90 | 0.86 | 2.53 | 0.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.59 | 0.81 | 2.34 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.13 | 1.93 | 1.50 | 3.01 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates OGS's fair value at $104.44 vs the current price of $88.91, implying +17.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.72 (P10) to $117.31 (P90), with a median of $108.32.
OGS's current P/E of 20.3x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -1.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
14 analysts cover OGS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.60 (range: $83.00 — $99.00), implying +0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OGS trades at the 3640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OGS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 470.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.