MODEL VERDICT
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $85.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $90.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $94.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $95.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $89.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $125.79 | +46.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $105.28 | +23.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $120.65 | +40.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $150.95 | +76.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $124.00 | +44.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $148.19 | +73.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $2.48 | -97.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $73.62 | -14.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $69.74 | -18.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $117.84 | +37.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $141.66 | +65.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $137.77 | +60.9% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $71 | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 |
| Conservative (5%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $98 | $106 |
| Base Case (1.1%) | $71 | $79 | $87 | $94 | $102 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $71 | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.21 | 28.18 | 21.07 | 33.97 | 4.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.87 | 22.21 | 16.36 | 28.61 | 4.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.87 | 19.03 | 15.28 | 24.32 | 3.30 |
| P/FCF | 95.42 | 46.86 | 16.29 | 330.66 | 113.23 |
| P/FFO | 22.92 | 22.34 | 18.21 | 27.81 | 3.47 |
| P/TBV | 6.71 | 5.66 | 4.28 | 11.22 | 2.32 |
| P/AFFO | 40.20 | 44.01 | 22.54 | 55.03 | 14.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.36 | 3.59 | 2.16 | 4.06 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.47 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 3.06 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OLLI's fair value at $137.77 vs the current price of $85.61, implying +60.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $137.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.01 (P10) to $195.26 (P90), with a median of $143.57.
OLLI's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -29.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $139.67 (range: $120.00 — $162.00), implying +63.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OLLI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2550.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.