MODEL VERDICT
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $28.08 | CURRENT | -11.2% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $33.05 | Below threshold | -24.5% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $8.06 | Scaled in | +209.5% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.75 | Scaled in | +161.2% |
| Sep 13, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $7.77 | Scaled in | +325.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.14 | 1.30 | 0.50 | 5.59 | 2.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.30 | 0.50 | 5.59 | 2.07 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for OLMA.
Fair value could not be computed for OLMA due to insufficient comparable data.
OLMA's current P/E of -11.0x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -151.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover OLMA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.38 (range: $38.00 — $48.00), implying +79.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OLMA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.