MODEL VERDICT
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $1.69 | Pending | -12.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $1.79 | +11.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $1.32 | -18.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $0.86 | -46.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $4.95 | +207.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $1.68 | +4.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $5.15 | +219.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $0.92 | -42.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $0.80 | -50.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $0.86 | -46.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $5.15 | +219.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.09 | +92.2% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $1 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| Conservative (5%) | $1 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| Base Case (-20.8%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.89 | 43.49 | 14.89 | 85.68 | 31.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.16 | 13.76 | 11.28 | 57.82 | 22.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.62 | 11.07 | 9.53 | 50.83 | 20.16 |
| P/FCF | 31.87 | 12.02 | 8.11 | 95.32 | 42.38 |
| P/FFO | 28.37 | 15.57 | 12.28 | 70.07 | 27.84 |
| P/AFFO | 28.57 | 15.72 | 12.31 | 70.53 | 28.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.00 | 3.32 | 1.32 | 36.05 | 16.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.79 | 4.43 | 2.72 | 31.59 | 13.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OLPX's fair value at $3.09 vs the current price of $1.61, implying +92.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.95 (P10) to $3.62 (P90), with a median of $2.67.
OLPX's current P/E of 54.9x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +87.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover OLPX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $1.75 (range: $1.50 — $2.00), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OLPX trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (46.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OLPX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.