MODEL VERDICT
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $292.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $307.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $290.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $258.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $257.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $326.54 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $181.41 | -38.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $255.36 | -12.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $244.00 | -16.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $188.77 | -35.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $257.58 | -12.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $1206.36 | +311.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $223.02 | -23.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $219.53 | -25.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $259.56 | -11.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $254.90 | -13.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $297.09 | +1.4% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (52%) | $370 | $407 | $444 | $481 | $518 |
| Conservative (84%) | $449 | $494 | $539 | $583 | $628 |
| Base Case (129.6%) | $559 | $615 | $671 | $727 | $783 |
| Bull Case (175%) | $670 | $737 | $804 | $871 | $938 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 117.61 | 41.05 | 15.16 | 574.53 | 202.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.47 | 37.20 | 13.66 | 83.85 | 27.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.60 | 23.73 | 10.73 | 87.15 | 26.18 |
| P/FCF | 42.90 | 31.94 | 23.03 | 96.66 | 25.26 |
| P/FFO | 29.73 | 24.18 | 11.77 | 59.85 | 16.14 |
| P/TBV | 4.16 | 3.68 | 1.87 | 6.04 | 1.72 |
| P/AFFO | 37.06 | 25.67 | 12.57 | 95.19 | 27.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.78 | 2.43 | 0.87 | 4.34 | 1.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.49 | 4.23 | 3.21 | 9.24 | 2.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONTO's fair value at $297.09 vs the current price of $292.92, implying +1.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $297.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $206.60 (P10) to $329.09 (P90), with a median of $251.79.
ONTO's current P/E of 72.1x compares to the industry median of 62.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +14.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 117.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover ONTO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $308.33 (range: $260.00 — $350.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ONTO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3110.0% to approximately $384. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.