MODEL VERDICT
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $215.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $216.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $217.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $217.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $189.65 | Below threshold | +12.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $162.43 | -24.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $125.64 | -41.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $171.15 | -20.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $213.59 | -1.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $165.35 | -23.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $211.89 | -1.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $957.01 | +343.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $157.05 | -27.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $157.36 | -27.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $174.54 | -19.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $221.08 | +2.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $223.63 | +3.6% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (52%) | $277 | $302 | $327 | $351 | $376 |
| Conservative (84%) | $337 | $367 | $396 | $426 | $456 |
| Base Case (129.6%) | $419 | $457 | $494 | $531 | $569 |
| Bull Case (175%) | $502 | $547 | $592 | $636 | $681 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 117.61 | 41.05 | 15.16 | 574.53 | 202.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.47 | 37.20 | 13.66 | 83.85 | 27.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.60 | 23.73 | 10.73 | 87.15 | 26.18 |
| P/FCF | 42.90 | 31.94 | 23.03 | 96.66 | 25.26 |
| P/FFO | 29.73 | 24.18 | 11.77 | 59.85 | 16.14 |
| P/TBV | 4.16 | 3.68 | 1.87 | 6.04 | 1.72 |
| P/AFFO | 37.06 | 25.67 | 12.57 | 95.19 | 27.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.78 | 2.43 | 0.87 | 4.34 | 1.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.49 | 4.23 | 3.21 | 9.24 | 2.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONTO's fair value at $223.63 vs the current price of $215.89, implying +3.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $223.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.73 (P10) to $269.43 (P90), with a median of $192.26.
ONTO's current P/E of 53.2x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +26.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 117.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
11 analysts cover ONTO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $261.67 (range: $220.00 — $300.00), implying +21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ONTO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7790.0% to approximately $384. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.