Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$215.89
→
Intrinsic$156.11
-28%
$107.56$156.11$248.23
Market implies 34% growth for 5 years
ONTO trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $216, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (34%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $108 → Bull $248. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $191 | $206 | $222 | $239 |
| 10% | $135 | $145 | $156 | $168 |
| 12% | $104 | $111 | $120 | $128 |
| 14% | $84 | $90 | $96 | $103 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($248) offers 15% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($108) implies 50% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 34% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 28% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$267.22M
Year 2$334.02M
Year 3$417.53M
Year 4$521.91M
Year 5$652.38M
Terminal$9.60B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$213.77MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.