MODEL VERDICT
Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $32.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $35.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $35.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $33.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $31.80 | Below threshold | +4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $31.89 | -1.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $31.55 | -2.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $24.88 | -23.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $26.98 | -16.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $32.32 | -0.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $36.69 | +13.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $53.37 | +64.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $37.54 | +15.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $26.33 | -18.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $27.28 | -16.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.80 | +22.6% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.94 | 24.89 | 18.86 | 36.94 | 8.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.31 | 20.63 | 11.90 | 38.48 | 10.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.54 | 20.74 | 12.03 | 63.43 | 17.70 |
| P/FCF | 48.67 | 23.60 | 13.93 | 208.65 | 70.74 |
| P/FFO | 23.70 | 21.65 | 14.56 | 40.54 | 9.21 |
| P/AFFO | 32.45 | 28.15 | 16.73 | 65.91 | 19.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.52 | 3.84 | 2.57 | 4.38 | 0.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.14 | 1.01 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPCH's fair value at $39.80 vs the current price of $32.46, implying +22.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.07 (P10) to $51.98 (P90), with a median of $40.10.
OPCH's current P/E of 25.4x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +30.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover OPCH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.14 (range: $35.00 — $42.00), implying +17.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPCH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2120.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.