MODEL VERDICT
Opera Limited (OPRA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $16.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $13.46 | Pending | -3.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $11.95 | -25.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $15.12 | -5.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $14.75 | -8.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $9.20 | -42.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $10.15 | -36.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $8.94 | -44.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $10.84 | -32.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $16.70 | +4.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $16.70 | +4.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $22.91 | +42.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $9.20 | -42.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.22 | +1.1% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (8%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (12.5%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.14 | 17.43 | 6.17 | 44.93 | 13.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.61 | 18.28 | 6.98 | 26.89 | 8.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.24 | 14.72 | 7.03 | 54.04 | 21.69 |
| P/FCF | 21.24 | 18.59 | 13.22 | 39.33 | 9.64 |
| P/FFO | 13.32 | 12.83 | 5.43 | 23.95 | 6.82 |
| P/TBV | 2.59 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 4.14 | 0.83 |
| P/AFFO | 17.05 | 14.71 | 5.76 | 36.53 | 11.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 1.81 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.96 | 3.37 | 2.10 | 6.57 | 1.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPRA's fair value at $16.22 vs the current price of $16.04, implying +1.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.33 (P10) to $21.66 (P90), with a median of $16.81.
OPRA's current P/E of 17.8x compares to the industry median of 16.4x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +8.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover OPRA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.50 (range: $21.50 — $21.50), implying +34.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPRA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2220.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.