MODEL VERDICT
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $91.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $97.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $98.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $91.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $97.93 | Below threshold | -5.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $1.96 | -97.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $0.21 | -99.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $5.42 | -94.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $2.34 | -97.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.07 | -97.7% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 697× | 763× | 829× (Current) | 895× | 961× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $78 | $86 | $93 | $100 | $108 |
| Conservative (5%) | $81 | $88 | $96 | $103 | $111 |
| Base Case (-34.9%) | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Bull Case (-47%) | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates NBIS's fair value at $2.07 vs the current price of $91.19, implying -97.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.31 (P10) to $5.34 (P90), with a median of $3.11.
NBIS's current P/E of 829.0x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +4551.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover NBIS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $156.33 (range: $125.00 — $232.00), implying +71.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 19.0% is 14.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (4.9%), with a Z-score of +2.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$24. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NBIS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7410.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.