MODEL VERDICT
Oportun Financial Corporation (OPRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $12.79 | +132.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $10.31 | +87.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $12.65 | +130.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.30 | +69.1% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1.93 | 1.12 | 0.40 | 4.48 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.44 | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 1.13 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.41 | 0.25 | 1.35 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPRT's fair value at $9.30 vs the current price of $5.50, implying +69.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.50 (P10) to $12.46 (P90), with a median of $9.42.
OPRT's current P/E of -2.8x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -124.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover OPRT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.88 (range: $3.50 — $24.00), implying +97.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OPRT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.