Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Valuation Overview•Is Oracle Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 60/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
ORCL demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (10.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (23.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 30.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.2B | +17.4% | +10.5% | +10.7% | +6.2% | |
| EBITDA | $9.0B | — | +14.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $4.3B | +37.3% | +26.2% | — | +6.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.45 | +34.3% | +23.8% | +5.1% | +10.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.9B | -5911.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 65.8% | 69.0% | 71.8% | 75.9% |
| Operating Margin | 30.8% | 30.2% | 28.5% | 31.8% |
| Net Margin | 25.4% | 22.3% | 19.9% | 22.2% |
| FCF Margin | -35.2% | -4.5% | 3.0% | 17.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.96 | $2.11 | +7.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.70 | $1.79 | +5.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.64 | $2.26 | +37.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.48 | $1.47 | -0.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.64 | $1.70 | +3.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.49 | $1.47 | -1.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.48 | $1.47 | -0.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.33 | $1.39 | +4.5% |
Total return is -11.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -36.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -5.3% | -14.6% | — |
| 1Y | -11.6% | -36.6% | +0.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +15.8% | -3.9% | +4.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +20.3% | +7.3% | +10.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +17.3% | +3.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Oracle Corporation (ORCL) valuation, health, and returns.
Oracle Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -19.2% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $148.94)
Oracle Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $148.94 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $129.55 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $253.50 (implying +37.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Oracle Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 60/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.0%.
Oracle Corporation pays a 1.1% dividend yield, covered by a 34% payout ratio with 17 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Oracle Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +17.4% 1Y revenue growth and +34.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +10.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 86 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +37.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Oracle Corporation include: -58.4% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.80x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.80x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.